Football is often subjected to what is referred to as ‘the butterfly effect’, in which one small event can lead to major consequences or changes elsewhere. We see this occur all the time in our own lives and across the globe. If you stop to think of those tiny decisions you have made in life which have consequently led you to where you are today, this idea is quite extraordinary.

But how does it effect the sport of football?

Well, in this blog series, we are going to look at some of the ‘tiny events’ that changed the course of football forever, and the resulting impact this had had, asking perhaps how things could have been different, and saying ‘what if that hadn’t occurred’.

The next post in this series will be looking at Arsenal’s goalkeeper Bernd Leno, and his injury back on 20th June 2020 against Brighton, wherein he collided with Neil Maupay and while the TV cameras refused to replay the incident due to the gruesome nature of the injury, we all saw the abuse he dished out to his opponent whilst being stretchered off. This injury not only had an impact on Arsenal who lost their no.1 at that time for a prolonged period, but it saw the emergence of the then backup goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez, who has since gone on to international greatness with his recent World Cup triumph, and in the space of 2 and a bit years, he’s gone from backup to one of the top keepers in football at this time. This butterfly effect is in full-force in this situation, and the fallout of this incident is one for Hollywood in the rise of Martinez, and also the paths of Leno, Arsenal and Aaron Ramsdale.

We have a few of these posts in the pipeline, but as always we are more than welcoming to suggestions, so head over to Twitter (@NextGoalWinBlog) and let us know the event in football that has had big consequences for your team.

Background

In 2019, Bernd Leno, had a mixed season. While he started the season as Arsenal’s first-choice goalkeeper, he faced competition from veteran goalkeeper Petr Cech and also had to adjust to the playing style of new Arsenal manager Unai Emery.

Leno made some impressive saves throughout the season and played a key role in helping Arsenal reach the final of the UEFA Europa League, where they faced Chelsea. However, he also made some high-profile mistakes, which led to criticism from fans and pundits.

Overall, Leno’s performances in the 2019 season were somewhat inconsistent, but he continued to be a valuable member of the Arsenal team and established himself as their undisputed first-choice goalkeeper.

In 2020, Bernd Leno continued to be Arsenal’s first-choice goalkeeper, making 30 Premier League appearances and playing a crucial role in the team’s performances.

However, in June 2020, Leno suffered a serious injury during a match against Brighton & Hove Albion, where he landed awkwardly on his right knee while trying to catch the ball. He was stretchered off the pitch and later diagnosed with a knee ligament injury.

The injury forced Leno to miss the rest of the season and raised concerns about his availability for the start of the 2020-21 season. However, he made a quick recovery and returned to action in September 2020, playing in Arsenal’s first game of the season against Fulham.

Despite the injury setback, Leno continued to be a key player for Arsenal in the 2020 season, making several important saves and keeping several clean sheets. He was also named Arsenal’s Player of the Season for the 2019-20 campaign.

In 2021, Bernd Leno continued to be Arsenal’s first-choice goalkeeper, making 30 Premier League appearances and playing a crucial role in the team’s performances.

However, the 2020-21 season was a challenging one for Arsenal, and they finished in eighth place in the Premier League, failing to qualify for European competitions. Despite this, Leno’s performances were generally solid, and he continued to make important saves for the team.

Off the pitch, there were reports of interest from other clubs in signing Leno, but he remained committed to Arsenal and signed a new long-term contract with the club in August 2021. The contract extension was seen as a vote of confidence in Leno’s abilities and his importance to the Arsenal team.

Overall, 2021 was a relatively uneventful year for Leno, but he remained a key player for Arsenal and continued to be one of the top goalkeepers in the Premier League.

Bernd Leno’s injury in 2020 had a significant impact on Emiliano Martinez, who was Leno’s backup goalkeeper at the time. With Leno out injured, Martinez was given the opportunity to step up and become Arsenal’s first-choice goalkeeper for the rest of the season.

Martinez performed admirably in Leno’s absence, making a number of impressive saves and keeping several clean sheets. His performances were particularly noteworthy in Arsenal’s run to the FA Cup, where he played a key role in their semi-final and final victories.

Martinez’s performances were so impressive that there was speculation that he could become Arsenal’s permanent first-choice goalkeeper even after Leno’s return from injury. However, Leno regained his place in the team once he returned to full fitness, and Martinez eventually left Arsenal to join Aston Villa in September 2020, where he became their first-choice goalkeeper.

Despite the competition for the starting goalkeeper position, Leno and Martinez had a good relationship at Arsenal, and Leno was supportive of Martinez during his stint as the team’s first-choice goalkeeper. In interviews, Leno praised Martinez’s performances and acknowledged that he faced tough competition for the starting spot.

After leaving Arsenal in September 2020, Emiliano Martinez joined Aston Villa on a four-year contract for a reported fee of £20 million. At Villa, Martinez quickly established himself as the team’s first-choice goalkeeper, making a string of impressive saves and keeping several clean sheets in his early appearances.

Martinez’s performances were a major factor in Aston Villa’s strong start to the 2020-21 Premier League season, and he played a key role in helping the team secure an 11th-place finish.

Martinez’s performances at Villa earned him widespread acclaim and recognition as one of the top goalkeepers in the Premier League. He was also called up to the Argentina national team, where he played a key role in their Copa America and World Cup successes.

Other Consequences

In all honesty, these things may well have happened with or without the injury, and while it did throw Martinez into the limelight as no longer just a backup, he could have still shown his success with the FA Cup as being enough to force a move to a club like Aston Villa even without his run as the first-choice. Of course as we have discussed, their career paths have changed since the time, with neither goalkeeper remaining at the club, and so we should also discuss the impact on Arsenal.

In his season return following the injury, Leno had played in 49 games for Arsenal throughout 2020-2021, however, after finishing in 8th place Arteta had the backing to bring in some big new names to the club, and he decided on Aaron Ramsdale who had just been relegated with Sheffield United. This move was slightly surprising for a complete replacement of a keeper who had been fairly steady throughout the 20-21 season, however Ramsdale signalled what Arteta was trying to build, in planning long-term with young and exciting talents, which Ramsdale fitted well.

In all honesty, I don’t really think the injury had much impact if any on the transfer of Aaron Ramsdale, however that’s not to say that after the dynamic shift between Leno and Martinez, Arteta wasn’t questioning Leno as his no.1 throughout the season. I personally don’t think Leno would have been at Arsenal currently no matter what happened, as Arteta had the backing to build his own team, and Leno is not a keeper who would be happy to keep the bench warm to anyone else at this point in his career.

While talking about Arsenal in general, it’s hard to imagine where they would be currently with Leno in goal, as of course they are flying currently, and Ramsdale has contributed, but I reckon that Leno may have also been capable enough of playing in their current side without much difference, and with his form at Fulham this season, he’s clearly still a quality goalkeeper.

What else do you think would have happened in football had Bernd Leno never picked up that injury against Brighton. Would he still be Arsenal’s no.1? Would this effect them where they currently sit top of the league table? What about Martinez and his international success? Could Messi have been trophyless for his nation, or would he have won no matter?

Also, let us know what impact this perhaps had on your club, or if there’s any other consequences you can think of from this event in time.

Get over to Twitter (@NextGoalWinBlog) and let us know what you think.