What If? (2019 Champions League Final)
Football is often subjected to what is referred to as ‘the butterfly effect’, in which one small event can lead to major consequences or changes elsewhere. We see this occur all the time in our own lives and across the globe. If you stop to think of those tiny decisions you have made in life which have consequently led you to where you are today, this idea is quite extraordinary.
But how does it effect the sport of football?
Well, in this blog series, we are going to look at some of the ‘tiny events’ that changed the course of football forever, and the resulting impact this had had, asking perhaps how things could have been different, and saying ‘what if that hadn’t occurred’.
The next post in this series will be looking at the 2019 Champions League final, in which we saw Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool battle it out for the biggest trophy in club football. Spurs had a magnificent run to the final with excitement throughout the knockout rounds, and also beating some huge opposition on the way. Meanwhile, for Liverpool they were the ‘mentality monsters’ who just knew they could get it over the line, and after a failure the year before against Real Madrid, they came to this final ready to take the trophy. They did just that and begun a huge run of glory. But what about if the final had gone the other way?
We have a few of these posts in the pipeline, but as always we are more than welcoming to suggestions, so head over to Twitter (@NextGoalWinBlog) and let us know the event in football that has had big consequences for your team.
Background
Liverpool’s run to the Champions League final in the 2018-2019 season was marked by some memorable moments, including a stunning 4-0 victory over Barcelona in the semi-final second leg. They finished second in their group, behind Paris Saint-Germain, and defeated Bayern Munich, Porto, and Barcelona on their way to the final.
Tottenham’s run to the final was equally impressive, with dramatic wins over Manchester City and Ajax in the quarter-finals and semi-finals respectively. They finished second in their group, behind Barcelona, and defeated Borussia Dortmund, Manchester City, and Ajax on their way to the final.
Both teams displayed great determination and skill in reaching the final, and the match was highly anticipated as a clash between two talented English sides. While Liverpool ultimately emerged victorious, Tottenham’s journey to the final was a testament to their resilience and ability to overcome the odds.
Tottenham’s Champions League Journey
Group Stage:
Matchday 1 (September 18, 2018): Inter Milan 2-1 Tottenham – Tottenham started their campaign with a 2-1 loss away to Inter Milan. Christian Eriksen scored Tottenham’s only goal in the 53rd minute, but Inter Milan scored twice in the final minutes to secure the win.
Matchday 2 (October 3, 2018): Tottenham 2-4 Barcelona – Tottenham faced a tough test against Barcelona at home, and despite goals from Harry Kane and Erik Lamela, they lost 4-2 to the Spanish giants. Lionel Messi scored twice for Barcelona.
Matchday 3 (October 24, 2018): PSV Eindhoven 2-2 Tottenham – Tottenham travelled to the Netherlands to face PSV Eindhoven and came away with a 2-2 draw. Lucas Moura scored both of Tottenham’s goals, but they were unable to hold on for the win, with PSV equalizing in the 87th minute.
Matchday 4 (November 6, 2018): Tottenham 2-1 PSV Eindhoven – Tottenham hosted PSV in the reverse fixture and managed to secure a 2-1 win. Goals from Kane and Eriksen helped Tottenham to victory, although they had to come from behind after PSV took an early lead.
Matchday 5 (November 28, 2018): Tottenham 1-0 Inter Milan – Tottenham faced Inter Milan at home knowing that a win was essential to keep their hopes of qualifying for the knockout stages alive. Christian Eriksen scored the only goal of the game in the 80th minute to give Tottenham a crucial win.
Matchday 6 (December 11, 2018): Barcelona 1-1 Tottenham – In their final group stage match, Tottenham needed to match or better Inter Milan’s result in order to progress to the knockout stages. Despite falling behind to a first-half goal from Ousmane Dembele, Tottenham fought back and earned a 1-1 draw thanks to a second-half goal from Lucas Moura. This result, coupled with PSV’s win over Inter Milan, saw Tottenham progress to the Round of 16.
Round of 16:
First Leg (February 13, 2019): Tottenham 3-0 Borussia Dortmund – Tottenham faced German side Borussia Dortmund in the Round of 16 and got off to a flying start with a 3-0 win at home. Goals from Heung-Min Son, Jan Vertonghen, and Fernando Llorente gave Tottenham a comfortable lead to take into the second leg.
Second Leg (March 5, 2019): Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Tottenham – In the second leg, Tottenham faced a Borussia Dortmund side who were looking to mount a comeback. However, a goal from Harry Kane in the 49th minute sealed a 4-0 aggregate victory for Tottenham and sent them through to the quarter-finals.
Quarter-finals:
First Leg (April 9, 2019): Tottenham 1-0 Manchester City – Tottenham faced English champions Manchester City in the quarter-finals and managed to secure a 1-0 win at home. Son scored the only goal of the game in the 78th minute to give Tottenham a slender lead to take into the second leg.
Second Leg (April 17, 2019): Manchester City 4-3 Tottenham – In a thrilling second leg, Manchester City fought back from a goal down to take a 3-2 lead at home, with goals from Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva, and Sergio Aguero. However, Tottenham managed to score two crucial away goals through Son and Llorente. With the aggregate score tied at 4-4, Tottenham advanced on away goals and secured their place in the semi-finals.
Semi-finals:
First Leg (April 30, 2019): Tottenham 0-1 Ajax – Tottenham faced a talented Ajax side in the semi-finals and lost the first leg 1-0 at home. Donny van de Beek scored the only goal of the game in the 15th minute to give Ajax a vital away goal.
Second Leg (May 8, 2019): Ajax 2-3 Tottenham – In the second leg, Tottenham faced a difficult task as they travelled to Amsterdam to take on Ajax. Ajax got off to a great start and scored two first-half goals through Matthijs de Ligt and Hakim Ziyech to take a 2-0 lead. However, Lucas Moura scored two quick goals in the second half to bring Tottenham level on aggregate. In the dying minutes of the match, Lucas Moura scored his third goal of the night to give Tottenham a dramatic 3-2 win and send them through to the final on away goals.
Final:
(June 1, 2019): Tottenham 0-2 Liverpool – In the final, Tottenham faced fellow English side Liverpool at the Wanda Metropolitano in Madrid. Despite putting in a spirited performance, Tottenham were unable to find the back of the net, with Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson Becker making several crucial saves. Liverpool took the lead in the second minute through a penalty from Mohamed Salah, and Divock Origi sealed the win for Liverpool with a goal in the 87th minute. Tottenham were unable to mount a comeback and lost the match 2-0.
Tottenham’s Fallout
If Tottenham had won the Champions League in 2019, it would have been a historic achievement for the club, as they have never won the competition before. The win would have also meant that they would have qualified for the 2019 FIFA Club World Cup, where they would have faced the champions of the other continental club competitions.
In addition to the glory and prestige of winning one of the most prestigious club competitions in the world, Tottenham would have also received a significant financial boost. The club would have earned a share of the prize money, which was €82 million for the 2018-19 season, as well as additional revenue from merchandise sales, ticket sales, and increased exposure in the media.
Furthermore, winning the Champions League would have had a significant impact on the morale and confidence of the team and its fans. It would have given the players and the club a sense of accomplishment and a boost in confidence that could have translated into better performances in future competitions.
Looking more in depth to what could have happened to Tottenham, first of all, then manager Mauricio Pochettino departed the club in November of the following season, with the disappointment of the final loss clearly impacting upon his squad and the now higher demands from the board. With Tottenham in 14th on his departure, it felt like the hangover of the final was destined to plague the team with Poch in charge. Had they won in Madrid, it’s fair to say Pochettino would have surely still been at Tottenham in the following season and beyond, as he would have become untouchable at the club (which admittedly is still how many fans viewed the manager). To have done something so spectacular, the club would have forgotten about their stumbling of the league when Leicester performed their miracle, and instead the manager would become an icon at the club and surely the first in line for a statue outside their new stadium.
Now, we are of course assuming that this would mean Poch stayed of his own wishes, whereas as we saw in real life, the likes of PSG could well have come calling, and this could well have tempted the Argentine to work with such big names where this expectation is commonplace. If this had happened however, with a winners medal already in his back pocket, he surely would have been more confident in his authority, and been able to command the dressing room which is often cited as to why he struggled at the club.
Whatever move Pochettino made next, it’s fair to say he would be regarded as one of the finest coaches of 21st century football as his opponent on the night Jurgen Klopp has become. Whether creating a further legacy domestically with this Spurs team, or taking the gamble elsewhere, there surely would have been some follow up success to the 2019 tournament, while I imagine that also that the ‘cursed’ feeling that must still be over the club and manager himself would have never come to exist.
Within the club, we can also ask questions about what could have happened with the likes of Harry Kane, Eriksen, Dele Alli and even players like Lucas Moura. In the 3 years that have almost passed since the final, each of the big names of the run to the final have gone down different paths. For Harry Kane, I genuinely believe this success and getting his first major silverware would have bumped him to the next level of a world leading striker, even more than he currently is. We all know he wants a trophy at Spurs to cement his legacy at the club, but getting the 2019 Champions League would have done that and more. I believe that if he gets some silverware at Spurs he will be out of the club in the following transfer window, and we may well have seen Kane at a club like Real Madrid, Manchester United or even Manchester City, where he can rely on trophy success more and maintain this glory. While we all know he wants the Premier League goal record, he will know that playing at Manchester United or City will surely make this even more likely, and so he would have been poached for a British record fee, rather than the £50-80million trophy-less fee we expect of this summer.
Even if Kane stayed at Spurs, in a similar manner to Pochettino, we would have seen the player gone to the next level, without this curse hanging over them. I would almost guarantee that a Champions League winner Harry Kane at Tottenham would have added 5-10 more goals a season to what he actually has done, while I imagine the link up of manager and player would have kept them in the top 4, if not title contention in the following seasons.
On an international stage, coming off the World Cup semi-final loss, Champions League final loss, and what has followed with England, a Harry Kane with a Champions League medal may also have pushed the national team past the barrier that made the final against Italy in Euro 2020 and World Cup exit in 2022 so tough. I think he would have been a different person with a different mindset, not burdened by the pressure on his shoulders. Now I’m not naïve enough to think if he had won the Champions League he would have had an influence on the Euro 2020 penalty shootout, or 2022 penalty miss, but I do think he would have been even more influential in these games, possibly changing the outcomes entirely.
Some of the other players whose careers would have changed include; Dele Alli – A player who can’t get a game on loan at Besiktas from Everton, but at this time regarded as a superstar talent. He likely could have gotten a move to somewhere like Real Madrid or PSG where again trophies would have come easier. Christian Eriksen – Arguably his career hasn’t been too effected by the final loss as he went away to Inter and won Serie A, and after the horrific Euro 2020 incident has shown to be a huge star still at Manchester United, but perhaps again we may have seen this path take a detour to Barcelona or again a club like PSG who miss a player like Eriksen in their midfield. Harry Winks – At just 27 he can barely get in the Sampdoria XI on loan from Spurs, whereas in the starting line up for Spurs in the final he was regarded as a huge prospective talent to get into the England squad more frequently, possibly take a more senior role at Spurs or have taken a move to somewhere like Liverpool or Manchester United. Danny Rose – Another player who can’t find a game. He actually remains without a club after his spell at Watford was cancelled by mutual agreement in 2022. A Champions League winner Danny Rose would certainly have maintained his performances and while his place in the England setup may be questioned, he would certainly still be a Premier League regular.
I really don’t want this to sound like I am criticising these huge footballing talents, but what I am emphasising, is that with a Champions League medal, these players’ careers would have gone down a much different path.
Other Consequences
Looking at the other side of things, if Liverpool had lost the final, their path would have also been completely different. After their loss in the 2018 final, to have another stumble at the final hurdle, this could have been detrimental for the mindset of this Liverpool side, and this ‘mindset’ was actually a key factor in their Premier League success the following year. Although the squad were unbelievable in this period, having 2 Champions League losses, things really could have gone differently. Although they were a huge 18 points clear to win the title, in a covid ridden season, things could have been very different for the club if they were still reeling from the 2019 loss, as we saw with Tottenham. Questions would have been asked of Klopp in finals, the likes of Salah, Mane and Firmino may have been tempted to move elsewhere, and we may not have the Liverpool that we see today.
What else do you think would have happened in football had Tottenham Hotspur sealed their magnificent run in the tournament to claim the silverware. Would they have continued to win trophies and maybe even the Premier League title? Would Harry Kane have been able to push through for England in major tournaments? Would he maybe have moved elsewhere to continue his trophy obsession? Would Pochettino have stayed and created a legacy at the club?
Also, let us know what impact this perhaps had on your club, or if there’s any other consequences you can think of from this event in time.
Get over to Twitter (@NextGoalWinBlog) and let us know what you think.