What If? (2010 Ash Cloud)
Football is often subjected to what is referred to as ‘the butterfly effect’, in which one small event can lead to major consequences or changes elsewhere. We see this occur all the time in our own lives and across the globe. If you stop to think of those tiny decisions you have made in life which have consequently led you to where you are today, this idea is quite extraordinary.
But how does it effect the sport of football?
Well, in our new blog series, we are going to look at some of the ‘tiny events’ that changed the course of football forever, and the resulting impact this had had, asking perhaps how things could have been different, and saying ‘what if that hadn’t occurred’.
The first event we are looking at goes back to 2010 and the chaos of the ash cloud travel breakdown. For transfers and matches this game had big repercussions which have certainly impacted many sides to this very day. From the breakdown in transfer of a young Polish striker, to the delay in games in major European competitions, things certainly could have played out very differently if this hadn’t occurred.
We have a few of these posts in the pipeline, but as always we are more than welcoming to suggestions, so head over to Twitter (@NextGoalWinBlog) and let us know the event in football that has had big consequences for your team.
Background
The ash cloud that affected Europe in 2010 was the result of a volcanic eruption in Iceland. Specifically, the eruption occurred at the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, which is located in the south of Iceland. The eruption began on 14 April 2010 and lasted for several weeks.
During the eruption, molten lava and ash were ejected from the volcano and spewed into the air. The ash rose high into the atmosphere and was carried by winds across Europe, eventually causing widespread travel disruptions.
The ash cloud was a significant concern for airlines, as the ash particles can cause damage to aircraft engines, potentially leading to engine failure. This led to the closure of many airports and the cancellation of thousands of flights, as airlines sought to avoid flying through the ash cloud.
The ash cloud had a major impact on travel across Europe, with many people stranded or delayed for several days. It also had economic consequences, with some estimates putting the cost of the disruption at over $1 billion.
Overall, the 2010 ash cloud was a significant natural event that had far-reaching consequences for travel and commerce across Europe, and the travel chaos had huge repercussions on football, as teams were forced to travel by coach/boat rather than the much quicker and convenient plane travel.
Transfer Chaos
Due to the disruptions to travel, there were several high profile transfers that had to be delayed, or in some cases never happened at all due to the fallout from the ash cloud, including:
Rafael van der Vaart (Real Madrid to Bayern Munich) – The Dutch midfielder was due to undergo a medical examination in Munich, but was unable to travel due to the cancellation of flights. Consequently, the deal collapsed, and given special dispensation by the Premier League, Tottenham were able to snap up the midfielder on September 1st 2010. As Real Madrid were keen to sell, it was rumoured that Spurs managed to complete the deal on a reduced asking price, however this was disregarded by Real Madrid. The Dutchman went on to play for Spurs 77 times, netting 28 goals. Although unable to lead Spurs to silverware, he quickly became a cult hero at Tottenham and they are more than glad that the Bayern move collapsed. Following his spell in England, he returned to Hamburg for another 3 seasons before playing at Betis, and 3 final seasons in Denmark.
Had Van der Vaart joined Bayern in 2010 there’s no doubt he would have experienced much more silverware, however the move to Tottenham was a solid success, and worked out well for all parties.
Javier Mascherano (Liverpool to Barcelona) – The Argentine midfielder was also delayed in completing his move to Barcelona due to the ash cloud. This didn’t cause too much of an issue however and he still moved to Barcelona in the summer of 2010 and went on to play a pivotal role in one of Barcelona’s most successful periods, winning 4 league titles, 2 Champions League’s and 7 domestic cups among several other accolades.
These are just a few examples, but there were many other transfers that were also affected by the ash cloud. The disruptions caused by the ash cloud caused many clubs to adjust their transfer plans and consider alternative options for signing players. One of the biggest transfer’s that were speculated at this time, involves a player who went on to become arguably the World’s top striker through the 2010s, Robert Lewandowski, who according to former Blackburn manager Sam Allardyce was all set to join the, then Premier League side, but couldn’t get the deal done due to the disruption.
Robert Lewandowski
In 2010, Robert Lewandowski was still a relatively unknown footballer, plying his trade in the Polish league with Lech Poznan. According to comments from then Blackburn manager Sam Allardyce, they were seriously discussing a transfer for the striker to join mid-table Blackburn, with representatives going over several times to watch him play, and a move to Blackburn only being scuppered by the ash cloud travel chaos, meaning he couldn’t get to England, and consequently making a move to Dortmund later in the window. Of course no concrete evidence of this has been seen, and perhaps with the knowledge of interest from elsewhere, Lewandowski’s agent may have used this excuse to hold off making any decision early in the window, however it’s a fun thing to speculate on.
Firstly, it’s important to note that Blackburn were not exactly a powerhouse at the time. They had finished 10th in the Premier League in the 2009/10 season, and were looking to improve their fortunes. Signing Lewandowski, who had scored 21 goals in 34 appearances for Lech Poznan in the previous campaign, would have been seen as a coup for the club.
Assuming the deal had gone through, Lewandowski would have been tasked with leading the line for Blackburn. He would have joined a squad that included players such as David Dunn, Chris Samba and Morten Gamst Pedersen. With his height, strength and aerial ability, he would have been a real handful for Premier League defenders.
In his first season at Blackburn, Lewandowski would have been expected to adapt to the demands of English football. The Premier League is renowned for its physicality and fast pace, and it can take time for foreign players to adjust. However, given his natural ability and determination, it’s likely that Lewandowski would have settled in quickly.
With Lewandowski leading the line, Blackburn would have had a much greater chance of finishing higher up the Premier League table. They may even have qualified for European competition – something they had achieved just once in their history, back in 2005. Lewandowski’s goals would have been invaluable in any potential cup runs, and his presence in the side may have attracted other top-class players to the club.
Of course, it’s impossible to say exactly what would have happened if Lewandowski had joined Blackburn. Football is a complex and unpredictable game, and many factors can affect a team’s success. However, it’s clear that signing a player of Lewandowski’s quality would have been a major boost for Blackburn, and may have helped them to achieve greater success in the Premier League.
Instead of joining Blackburn in 2010, Lewandowski instead went on to join Borussia Dortmund that summer, and the rest is history…
Lewandowski joined Dortmund in 2010, and quickly established himself as one of the club’s most important players. He formed a formidable attacking partnership with Mario Götze, Marco Reus, and Shinji Kagawa, helping Dortmund to win back-to-back Bundesliga titles in 2011 and 2012.
If Lewandowski had joined Blackburn instead, Dortmund would have had to look for a different striker to lead their line. This could have had a significant impact on the club’s fortunes in the years that followed.
Without Lewandowski’s goals, Dortmund may not have been able to compete with Bayern Munich for the Bundesliga title. They may not have won the domestic double in the 2011/12 season, or reached the final of the Champions League in the following year. It’s possible that the club would have struggled to maintain their position as one of the top teams in German football.
However, it’s worth noting that Dortmund had a strong squad at the time, and may have been able to adapt to the loss of Lewandowski. The club’s success was built on a collective ethos and a strong team spirit, rather than individual brilliance alone. It’s possible that a different striker could have stepped up to fill Lewandowski’s shoes, or that the club would have signed a different striker who could have been just as effective.
In the end, we’ll never know exactly what would have happened to Dortmund if Lewandowski had joined Blackburn Rovers. However, it’s clear that the Polish striker had a significant impact on the club’s success during his time there, and his departure to Bayern Munich in 2014 was a major blow.
Bayern Munich are one of the biggest and most successful clubs in the world, and they have a long history of attracting and signing top players from around the globe. If Lewandowski had not joined the club, it’s likely that they would have pursued other high-profile strikers to bolster their squad.
That being said, it’s also possible that Bayern Munich may not have become the dominant force they are today without Lewandowski’s contributions. The Polish striker has been a key player for the club since his arrival in 2014, scoring an incredible 344 goals in 375 appearances across all competitions.
Without Lewandowski’s goals, Bayern Munich may not have won the Bundesliga as frequently as they have, and they may not have been as successful in European competitions. The striker’s impact on the club has been immense, and it’s difficult to imagine the team achieving the same level of success without him.
Other Consequences
Many football matches were postponed or cancelled due to the difficulties in air travel, which made it challenging for teams to travel to their scheduled matches. The UEFA Champions League and Europa League were particularly affected, with several matches postponed or moved to alternate locations. Some international matches and tournaments were also affected, with several countries unable to travel to their scheduled fixtures due to the ash cloud.
The Champions League semi-final between Inter Milan and Barcelona involved a 625 mile coach trip for Guardiola’s side to get to Milan, and they suffered a 3-1 loss at the hands of Mourinho’s Inter, who went on to win the treble that year. Many cited this extended travel in leading to a tired and leggy performance by Barcelona, and had this not been the case, we may well have seen a different result on the night. Barcelona went on to win the 2nd leg 1-0, but with the side being able to fly for the first meeting, perhaps the course of Inter’s season and Barcelona’s success could have been changed significantly. But we got to see a Mourinho masterclass throughout the treble season so I guess we haven’t been too hard done by.
In the Europa League, Liverpool took on another long coach trip to get to Madrid as they met for their semi-final first leg. Again, we saw the long travel having an impact, and the away side suffered a 1-0 loss. While Atletico were arguably the stronger side at this time, it could again be argued that a change in travel could have had a different result on the night, especially when Liverpool were able to win the 2nd leg 2-1, and only exited the tournament on away goals.
In the other semi-final, Fulham’s terrific run continued as they made their way over to Germany for a 0-0 draw against Hamburg in the 1st leg of their semi-final. They managed to hold out in the away fixture, and put on a show at home to get through to the final, although they stumbled at the final hurdle losing to the impressive Atletico Madrid side.
Newcastle also faced a long trek down the country, as the halt on plane travel meant their Championship clash away at Plymouth became a 900+ mile round coach trip to play out the fixture, although after winning 2-0 and claiming the Championship title I can’t imagine the players felt too concerned about the change in travel plans.
Referee Steve Bennett was taken off the Manchester Derby due to being stuck in Romania following a FIFA event, meaning he couldn’t take charge of the big derby where Manchester United scored a 93rd minute winner to keep their title hopes alive, although Chelsea went on to continue a successful season and edge them to the trophy.
There was also a change in ownership at West Ham as Icelandic owner Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson decided to sell up and move on as David’s Gold and Sullivan bought them out and disappeared from the club.
What else do you think would have happened in football had the 2010 ash cloud not prevented the move of Robert Lewandowski? Would he have had the same level of goals? Would he have been snapped up by a bigger European side as he was in the real timeline? Would he have fizzled out and remained a mid-table squad player?
Also, let us know what impact this perhaps had on your club, or if there’s any other consequences you can think of from this event in time.
Get over to Twitter (@NextGoalWinBlog) and let us know what you think.