The Champions League round of 16 has come and gone, and as we recover and regroup from witnessing Europe’s elite battling it out in their knockout ties, we can see the final stages of the prestigious tournament coming together. With the last 8 draw giving us some tasty ties which we will delve into more shortly, we cannot wait for the quarter-finals after some of the brilliance and pure footballing drama we have had over the past few weeks.

This post continues our Champions League reviews, and will be continuing throughout the tournament and following every stage of the competition. In the piece, we will pick out the key headlines and talking points of the gameweek/round of fixtures, so if you spot something or want us to discuss a specific game/team/player/moment, let us know over on Twitter (@NextGoalWinBlog).

Enjoy.

England (Almost) Dominate

3 out of 4 English sides essentially cruising into the last 8 signals another year where the English clubs are faring well in the tournament. With last years’ champions, runners up and quarter finalists (who won it in 2019) all looking strong, it’s certainly understood that all 3 sides have the potential to get all the way to the end in Paris.

Kicking off with Manchester City, they set themselves up about as well as any team could want, strolling to a 5-0 hammering away to Sporting Lisbon. Former Benfica man Bernardo Silva put the opposition booing aside and netted twice and assisted another in a quality performance. Along with Sterling and Mahrez who were also firing on all cylinders and the opposition failing to get away a shot on target, this game put the tie to bed and meant City could relax in the second leg. Admittedly, Guardiola wasn’t accepting his side easing up too much, but they certainly did as they played out a 0-0 on home turf in the second leg to take their aggregate score line and two clean sheets into the last 8 full of confidence. The second leg saw young prospects Egan-Riley and McAtee getting Champions League game time, while even Scott Carson got some playing time, coming on for the last 15 minutes. As a former Champions League winner, the 36 year old being subbed on in the final stages of a Champions League knockout round will be about as close to managerial showboating you’ll ever see. Overall for City, their focus will turn to the growing title challenge Liverpool are bringing, but with the last 8 draw upcoming, City fans will be praying Guardiola keeps things fairly simple and straight forward to keep the wins coming and the hope of a treble still very much on the cards.

Liverpool had arguably tougher opposition in their matchup, and Inter could have been a real banana skin for Klopp’s men, especially if the side had taken their eye of the Champions League given the recent League Cup win and title push. They made light work of the Italian side in the first leg at the San Siro, getting a 2-0 lead to take into the second leg. Inter were poor on the night, failing to get away a shot on target (although hit the woodwork), had less possession and their two forwards in Martinez and Dzeko failing to really get into the game. Liverpool however had their back 4 on form, which brought assists for left-back Robertson and centre-back Van Dijk, this gave goals for Salah and Firmino in link-ups that have been allowing Liverpool to dominate for years. In the second leg, things looked nervy under the Anfield floodlights, as Martinez netted a stunning strike in the 62nd minute, only for all hope of an Inter comeback to be squashed a minute later as Alexis Sanchez picked up his 2nd yellow and left Inter to struggle in balancing their need to attack with the fear of being caught out by a pressing Liverpool side. Inter left with the win, which will irritate Liverpool fans and Klopp in particular, with Van Dijk’s impressive Anfield unbeaten record coming to an end, however the stats showed Liverpool with much more of the ball, a much higher xG (1.65 – 0.31), hitting the woodwork 3 times and only falling to a stunning, almost unstoppable strike from the opposition. It’s a similar, yet slightly more subtle way we saw City’s performance, taking a good win in the first leg into the second, easing up and letting the opponent take a decent result in the second leg yet ultimately not giving either club a real worry. Liverpool have been quietly plugging away in 2022, picking up the League Cup, closing the gap on City down to a point, continuing with a relatively nice FA Cup draw and making the last 8 of the Champions League while generally having a full strength squad filled with determination and belief going into the final run-in. The quadruple is still on and wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to envisage by the end of this season.

In the most unusual of circumstances, Chelsea took on a strong Lille side with exciting striker Jonathan David as part of their impressive attacking line, however Chelsea put all off-field worries aside and came away from both legs with victory to maintain their retention efforts. Starting the first leg by displaying their impressive European/World silverware, the fans were buzzing in Stamford Bridge, and were rewarded for their support inside of 10 minutes as Havertz, playing as central striker, netted to give them the perfect start. Pulisic made it two and they took a strong lead into the second leg as they travelled away to France. In the second leg, and with the off-field restrictions the key talking point, again the players deserve great credit for focussing on the task at hand, and again came away with a victory. The penalty for Yilmaz gave Lille a brief glimpse of a comeback, until Pulisic netted his second of the round just before the half-time break. Azpilicueta netted midway through the second half to make it 4-1 and really settled the tie. Even without £100million man Lukaku starting either fixture, Werner on the bench and the likes of James and Chilwell missing through injury, Chelsea have been great in this competition and I can imagine that with the league out of reach, the League Cup final disappointment out of the way and a fairly nice FA Cup draw, Chelsea may well be on for retaining their Champions League title as they are making the most of their European nights.

Manchester United’s Woes Continue

In the previous section, there was a clear missing piece of the 4 English club jigsaw, in the form of Manchester United, and following their 2-legged affair with Atletico Madrid, they deserve their own headline. In complete contrast to City, Liverpool, Chelsea, United’s ambition and expectations of silverware this season are done by mid-March. But why?

The first leg result against Atletico gave the feeling of getting out of jail, as they fell behind to an early Joao Felix goal, but managed to grab a late equaliser through shining light Anthony Elanga with a great finish. According to reports, the mood in Madrid was that United robbed them with the equaliser, and it wasn’t deserved. Watching the game, I would argue a draw was fair, as United had the majority of possession (63%), got 7 shots (2 on target), and had nearly double the number of passes than Atletico. These stats obviously sound like a team that dominated, however this is Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid, so sitting back on their 1 goal lead and frustrating the opposition was exactly what we saw in the first leg, and then even more so in the second. Taking the 1-1 score into the Old Trafford fixture, again Atletico got a first-half goal, this time from Lodi, and then truly we saw the ‘dark arts’ of Diego come to light. Frustrating United through timewasting, pauses in play, substitutes winding up throw-in takers etc. the United crowd who had been urged on from Rangnick pre-game turned this passion into frustration and anger, both at Atletico, the poor officiating and then of course the performance of United. The desire to give United fans in the stadium a night to remember backfired massively as the mood at the full-time whistle felt like a realisation of just where the club are at, the huge undertaking for whoever arrives next and it’s almost like the end of the season in mid-march, with 9 league games left, nothing to play for and top-4 slipping from their grasp, it will be a night to forget for all United fans and although it’s not ‘rock bottom’ it feels almost like the bottom isn’t too far away.

What happens next for United? Perhaps the biggest and most divisive question in football right at this moment. 

Do they go early and snap up a manager before the end of the season given that arguably their top 2 candidates (Pochettino/Ten Hag) have both been dumped out of the Champions League at this stage. I understand they have domestic commitments, and both are obvious favourites to claim their respective league titles, but if they can pull the trigger early, the new man will have from now until August almost pressure free to find the players that they will build a team with, and get their feet under the desk ready to hit the new season running. Alternatively, do they stick things out with Rangnick, pushing for top 4, trying to get the Old Trafford crowd feeling hopeful once again, and giving youth a chance when possible, to see which gems will shine brightest on the Premier League stage. Of course, United won’t ever admit the top 4 ambition is over until it’s mathematically impossible, but fans have all but lost hope, players seem unconvinced and should Arsenal create a gap between them and United, it may be fully out of reach in the not-too-distant future. Many ex-players turned pundits have made their feelings clear that they feel the time is right, that they shouldn’t be waiting around and just go get their new manager, however when negotiating, it would be financially difficult and possibly emotionally tough to tempt a new manager away from almost guaranteed silverware and cutting ties with their current club.

Looking at their managerial candidates, there are between 2-5 names realistically that United will be looking at. We will be releasing a post shortly delving deeper into each candidate, but they all have their own respective merits to look at as an overview;

Pochettino is one of the big two names being touted, and it’s the most understandable move for United. The Argentine manager has Premier League experience with Spurs where he gave them their most memorable Champions League journey all the way to the final. They were a strong club, built around unity, togetherness and although without being allowed to splash the cash, created a real unit that was dominant in England and enjoyed great nights in Europe, although lacking in trophies. Going across to PSG, he is now in a completely new situation to what he built at Tottenham. With Spurs being reluctant to spend, being built on a squad rather than individuals, PSG couldn’t be further away, with huge names being forced to gel, huge money being spent over recent years and an expectation of success as opposed to supporters and the board willing to go on the adventure and see what can happen. At United, he will find a blend of both sides, with money available, a willingness to build a project long-term but expectation of instant silverware and competitiveness, big name players, an expectation to develop and bring through youth and needing to mend a fractious dressing room, his experiences over the last 5 years could be perfect. The on-field positives continue, as he likes to play a 4-2-3-1 (the same formation used by Ole), allow centre-backs to bring the ball out, have the central striker drop back and the no.10 press on and play quite quick, one-pass football. This tactical similarity to how United have played in recent season feels the best way to get the most out of the players at United’s disposal and with Premier League experience, he could be the man for a new, long-term build with Rangnick et al assisting in recruitment and offering guidance on the long-term decisions.

Alternatively, Erik Ten Hag is the other man to be considered highly, with rumours of learning English and conversations taking place allegedly in recent weeks. With his Ajax side also dropping out of the Champions League, things may escalate with the process if he is the chosen one for United. With Ten Hag, he is proven to work well in a ‘industrial’ club like Ajax with their history, expectation and foundations in youth development, perfect for United and what they would like to become/return to. Having worked under former United great Edwin Van Der Saar and the directors at Ajax, he has shown to be willing to work with those above the manager and could be a great fit to work alongside Rangnick who will be moving into a similar role. He also has experience with Donny Van De Beek and could be tempted to take a few stars of Ajax over to Manchester with him. Having managed Bayern Munich’s reserves during the Guardiola era, and taking Ajax to the Champions League semi-finals (losing to Poch’s Spurs), along with a great run in the past year with his side netting 119 goals already in all competitions, and domestically having a stunning goal record (77 scored, 11 conceded). With 8 games to go, his side are 2 points clear of the Eredivisie and look likely to add another league title to their cabinet, he has gotten Ajax playing great football and performing well domestically and on the European stage (prior to the round of 16). Tactically, he adopts a 4-3-3 which could work for United well and has switched at times to a 4-2-3-1, he enjoys pressing with high intensity in a Rangnick style, plays with a defensive midfielder to shield the back 4 which United certainly need currently, plays from the back, plays with intensity, wingers getting wide and then a big target man (currently Haller) up top. By pushing the wingers wide, full backs push forward and underlap and the central striker is usually physically strong, technically skilled and top finisher. All of these things sound so set for the way United are now, it would be the path of least resistance for United, and with Rangnick preferring a similar style of pressing etc, it could be a match made in heaven.

It’s more than a managerial change to sort out United’s issues however. The club are filled with overpaid, stagnating players who either are not good enough for the level Manchester United expect (or at least their fans expect), are struggling in their current system and playing style, or simply aren’t trusted in their position and role within the side. In late 2021, with Solskjaer’s sacking looming, it appeared the side were out of form, under-coached and without a plan B when things got tough, resulting in horrendous defeats to Liverpool and Watford. With Rangnick arriving short-term, it initially helped the defence to stop shipping goals, but again they aren’t capable of putting 5/6 pass opponents as their domestic and European rivals can do with ease. Instead, the performances have been dull, disappointing, wasteful in front of goal. When Ronaldo, Sancho, Rashford, Elanga, Fernandes, Cavani and the rest are struggling to find the net, questions need to be asked if this set of players is a team or just individuals. A clear out is needed for sure (another post coming soon), but easily 10-15 players could be gone as Rangnick moves upstairs and the new man arrives. I appreciate that Ralf Rangnick was smart not to allow anyone to leave permanently in January as the new manager may want the likes of Martial, VDB, Lingard, however with contracts expiring, promises of game time not coming to fruition and the club ending with no silverware once again, the clear out may actually be several players jumping off the boat early and finding their place elsewhere.

Ajax Dream Over

We have just spoken about the Ajax head coach Ten Hag and his impact at the club, however what he has gotten from the side in Europe has been terrific during his tenure. Following the group stages, Ajax were a side I had listed as a ‘dark horse’ as they were simply sublime in the 6 group games, winning all 6, netting 20 and conceding just 5. In what was a tough group against Sporting Lisbon, Borussia Dortmund and Besiktas, to win all 6 games shows their impressive performances and potential to give anyone a run for their money. Additionally, with front man, Haller netting 11 times in 8 games, his goals in this years’ Champions League is only 3 shy of what he managed in 2 years at West Ham.

The Ajax dream came crumbling down however in the round of 16, as they came up against a resolute Benfica side. The 1st leg ended as a 2-2 draw, with Haller netting in both ends, scoring an own goal and then rectifying his error at the other end. With 60% possession and having an impressive 8 shots on target, it was an all-out attacking match, as the opposition managed 17 shots, 4 on target and both sides with an xG over 2 (2.04 Benfica, 2.41 Ajax). With the second leg providing everything to play for, it was a similar affair for Ajax, holding most of the ball, over twice the passes than Benfica, getting away 16 shots and an xG of 1.29, their opposition changed things up, played more defensively resolute and got their reward from a set piece, as the target for many European sides Darwin Nunez headed home after Onana missed collecting the ball from the corner. With the goal coming late in the game, Ajax couldn’t find a way through to equalise and take the game to extra-time, and their Champions League dreams are over for another year. They will take many positives from the campaign, especially through the group stages, however the disappointment of being knocked out must pass quickly as they return to the title race in the Eredivisie.

Money, Money, Money…

PSG looked destined once again to claim the Champions League this season in their home city, their home stadium and following the huge names of Messi, Ramos, Donnarumma et al joining Mbappe, Neymar… That was until they ran into Karim Benzema and his Real Madrid teammates. In undoubtedly the most entertaining watch of the whole round of fixtures, PSG vs Real Madrid delivered in the second leg. Pitting two of the favourites for the tournament at a still relatively early stage meant all eyes were on this one, and after Mbappe stole the show in the first leg, netting late in the home leg for Pochettino’s side. Going to the Bernabéu for the second leg, it was the biggest crowd Real Madrid had hosted for a few seasons now following the lockdowns and stadium renovations, and although only at 60,000 attendance, those who got tickets made their voices heard as they witnessed some moments of greatness unfold in front of them. In the first half, Mbappe made it 2-0 on aggregate, netting 4 minutes after being disallowed the opener for an offside call. At half-time, 2 up on aggregate and looking strong, things look destined to be going PSG’s way, they just needed to stay resolute in defence and let Madrid worry about getting goals. With another disallowed Mbappe finish inside 10 minutes of the second half, the star men for PSG appeared to be firing, and then a 17 minute spell that will go down as one of the great moments for Real Madrid in the Champions League occurred. It was another Frenchman who netted in the 61st, 76th and then instantly again in the 78 minutes, Karim Benzema sent his side 3-2 up on aggregate, 3-1 on the night and sent the Bernabéu crowd wild. The experience of Modric and Benzema alongside the youthful exuberance of Vinicius was too much for PSG’s shocking defence who were helpless against Madrid’s determination, and it resulted in a historic victory for Madrid and Carlo Ancelotti, who both have an unbreakable connection with this competition.

We now must turn to the losers in this case, as Madrid will continue on and discussion and praise will continue for their efforts, PSG are left scratching their heads once again at how they still cannot get their hands on the prize they covet. The summer spending on Messi, Ramos, Donnarumma, Hakimi was all intended to make this seasons Champions League a walk in the park. They have all the pieces to make them an unstoppable force, but once again have become undone by a team performance full of determination, passion and togetherness. The inquest will have already begun in Paris as the expectations of Poch being sacked are inevitable, the discussion over Messi’s future, Mbappe’s future and the board members also are being called into question. Just last weekend, PSG fans were audibly booing Messi and Neymar whenever they received the ball, summarising where it’s all going wrong. The club have tried hitting a cheat code on football, and when it doesn’t work, you can’t necessarily keep hitting the same cheat code, and instead must try and work to achieve the goal. PSG fans are appearing spoilt by what they have at their club, and still having the cheek to complain and boo, however it’s also understandable. When your club have sold their soul, and you aren’t getting the reward for it, you must feel frustrated, but try telling that you don’t want Messi at your club to any other football fan in the world and they will call you deluded. In knockout competition, it comes down to moments, 90 minutes or split second decisions that can allow anyone to beat anyone, and for PSG to continue expecting to win because of their line-up means they haven’t yet fully grasped the beauty of football in its unpredictability.

Looking ahead for the club from the outside as a neutral, I don’t see the owners abandoning their project yet, there is so much behind their investment that I honestly have little knowledge on, however they won’t be jumping ship just yet. However, the same can’t be said of their manager Pochettino, who is being touted heavily as the next Manchester United manager, or wherever he ends up, I will be stunned if he is on the touchline for PSG next season. The same could also be said for Mbappe, who is still yet to sign a contract extension, opening him up for a free-agent move to the side that knocked them out of the Champions League in the summer to link up with Benzema and create a legacy in Spain. Neymar is likely to stick around but can’t quite get himself to that level of ‘best of the best’, and probably at this point won’t manage to hit the form and talent he showed at Barcelona previously. Finally, Lionel Messi’s future is about as unknown as anyone’s in football, nobody had expected him to ever leave Barcelona, and it was disappointing for myself as a neutral to see that happen. With the PSG move not quite working out as either party would have hoped, and Barcelona figuring out their financial situation, could we see a spectacular return? I’ll leave you to speculate on that.

Continuing The Dream…

There were some great wins we haven’t covered yet, and a few surprises too. Bayern Munich were unbelievable once again as they turned around their 1-1 disappointment against Red Bull Salzburg by hammering them 7-1 in the home leg. Just the 11 minute hattrick for goal machine Lewandowski to put aside any contract concerns at the club and show they are not to be overlooked in this seasons edition of the competition. Meanwhile, Villarreal and their few hundred travelling contingent took over the Allianz as Emery’s side turned their 1-1 first leg draw into a 3-0 trouncing of the Italian giants. Although it took two penalties, and they left it late to open the scoring, it’s another huge European result for the Spanish underdogs, and with them looking to the last 8 and some of the potential opponents, they’ll be feeling unstoppable and could keep this dream going.

Last 8

With the last 8 draw taking place this morning, we have some exciting and interesting matchups to be looking forward to. The highlight’s are definitely with both Madrid sides, who will have to face the reigning Premier League champions and the reigning Champions League winners. Manchester City’s attack will face the resolute defence of Atletico in a managerial matchup for the ages. A real s***house merchant in Simeone will look to frustrate, hold out and counter Guardiola’s dominant attack. City have been caught out in big games like this in the Manchester Derby’s under the reign of Solskjaer, as well as other fixtures this season. Meanwhile, Chelsea have tough opponents Real Madrid who have shown already they are a threat to anyone and shouldn’t be counted out until the final whistle. Although still being considered far from their best, they have one of the worlds’ top strikers in Benzema, some great experience in midfield and youth in attack. Meanwhile, they are the ultimate Champions League club, and they have a manager who also loves the competition. Ancelotti will be all-out to get one over his former side, and I think Tuchel will need to be on his toes and figure out which is his best XI to match Madrid in all areas. Along with these mouth-watering clashes, underdogs Villarreal will be taking on my favourites for the competition in Bayern Munich, a dream matchup for fans of the Spanish side, while Benfica matchup against Liverpool and the Merseyside team will feel confident of progressing to the last 4, however Benfica are no pushover and got past Ajax in the previous round. In addition, the Champions League games could come in a month of fixtures which see’s Liverpool battling in FA Cup competitions, and facing huge league fixtures in their quest for the title including their huge match with Manchester City between the two-legs of the Champions League ties.

Last 8 draw:

Manchester City VS Atletico Madrid

Villarreal VS Bayern Munich

Benfica VS Liverpool

Chelsea VS Real Madrid

Europa League/Conference League

Although focussed on the Champions League, it would be naïve of us to ignore the other European competitions which are really heating up on Thursday nights. Although often mocked/derided by the elite clubs as almost punishment for missing the Champions League, this years’ edition of the Europa League, and the inaugural Europa Conference League has been incredibly exciting.

In the Europa League, the headline lies with West Ham United, who took their 1-0 away loss to Sevilla in the first leg, and turned it around in 120 minutes of joy, anxiety and pure emotion at the London Stadium. It was a fairytale finish, as Ukrainian Yarmolenko netted the winner in extra-time and sent the Hammers’ fans wild. They will be taking on Lyon in the quarter-finals. Staying in the UK, Rangers have made it through, as despite losing 2-1 in the second leg, their first leg dominant 3-0 win at home saw them take a 4-2 aggregate victory against Red Star Belgrade and now will be taking on Sporting Braga in the quarters. Former Arsenal man Aubameyang got the Nou Camp rocking as he netted the winner in their comeback win to keep them on their Europa League adventure a little longer. RB Leipzig, Atalanta and Eintracht Frankfurt round up the other victors and make up the final 8 who will compete in April for semi-final spots in the tournament.

The Conference League has also proved to be eventful and enjoyable, with Bodø/Glimt, Feyenoord, Marseille, PSV, PAOK and Slavia Prague joining Leicester City and Mourinho’s Roma in the last 8. With some huge teams left in the tournament, it’s given us some intriguing matchups already and with these sides clashing, it will give even more drama and excitement in the closing stages. Leicester City’s domestic campaign might not be going to plan, however their European journey has them as one of the favourites for the competition and they will be desperate to claim European silverware for the first time in the clubs’ history. The other intriguing clash see’s a repeat of Bodø/Glimt vs Roma from the group stage matches which saw Mourinho suffer one of his heaviest defeats of his managerial career against the Norwegian champions. For the first time in over 1000 management games, his side conceded 6, and he will be all out for revenge in the quarter-finals. Thursday nights are looking tasty in the closing stages of these tournaments.