The stage is set in Dortmund for one of the biggest nights of Euro 2024: England vs the Netherlands in the semi-final. After weeks of drama, late goals and penalty shootouts, Gareth Southgate’s England are now just one win away from a second successive European Championship final. Standing in their way are a rejuvenated Dutch side, who have rediscovered their rhythm after a shaky group stage. It promises to be a fascinating battle between England’s resilience and the Netherlands’ attacking flair.

Team News

England come into this semi-final with a largely fit squad. There are no major fresh injuries, and key players such as Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, and Bukayo Saka are all available. Southgate is expected to stick with the 3-4-2-1 formation used against Switzerland, featuring a back three of Kyle Walker, John Stones and Ezri Konsa, with Kieran Trippier and Saka operating as wing-backs. Declan Rice and Kobbie Mainoo are likely to continue in midfield, while Phil Foden and Bellingham will play behind Kane. Luke Shaw could return to the starting lineup after recovering from injury, offering more natural balance on the left.

The Netherlands, managed by Ronald Koeman, also have a clean bill of health. Bart Verbruggen should continue in goal, protected by a defence of Denzel Dumfries, Virgil van Dijk, Stefan de Vrij, and Nathan Aké. In midfield, Jerdy Schouten and Tijjani Reijnders are expected to anchor the side, with Xavi Simons and Cody Gakpo providing creativity. Memphis Depay or Donyell Malen could start up front, though Wout Weghorst is another option if Koeman wants a more traditional target man. After coming from behind to beat Turkey 2–1 in the quarter-final, confidence in the Dutch camp is high.

Form Guide

England’s route to the semi-final has been far from smooth, but they’ve found a way to stay alive. They topped Group C despite scoring just two goals, drawing with Denmark and Slovenia after a narrow opening win against Serbia. In the knockouts, England needed a spectacular Jude Bellingham overhead kick to rescue them against Slovakia before Harry Kane sealed the win in extra time. Their quarter-final against Switzerland was another tense affair — a 1–1 draw settled by a perfect penalty shootout. While the performances haven’t always sparkled, England’s defensive record remains strong, and their knack for late drama has become a theme of the tournament.

The Netherlands have taken a different path. After finishing third in their group behind Austria and France, they’ve grown stronger in the knockouts. They brushed aside Romania 3–0 in the Round of 16 before producing a gritty 2–1 comeback win over Turkey in the quarter-finals. Cody Gakpo has been one of the tournament’s standout players, scoring three goals so far, while Xavi Simons has emerged as a creative force. The Dutch have scored nine goals in five matches, almost double England’s tally, and look the more fluid attacking side heading into this tie.

Odds and Expectations

Bookmakers see this as a very tight contest, with England slight favourites to progress. Most betting markets have England around 6/4 to win in 90 minutes, the Netherlands at roughly 2/1, and a draw around 9/5. In other words, it’s nearly even across the board, reflecting how closely matched these sides are. England’s games have tended to be low-scoring, and the odds for under 2.5 goals are once again shorter than for a high-scoring encounter. Many analysts expect a tense, tactical match that could easily go to extra time.

Prediction

England have shown incredible resilience, but they’ve yet to produce a performance that truly convinces. The Netherlands, meanwhile, appear to be peaking at just the right time, with Gakpo and Simons in dangerous form. Southgate’s men will rely on their defensive discipline and big-game experience, while Koeman’s team will look to exploit the spaces in wide areas and press England’s midfield.

It’s a clash of styles: England’s structure versus the Netherlands’ spontaneity. Expect fine margins to decide it, perhaps another late goal or even penalties.

Prediction: England 1–1 Netherlands (England to advance on penalties).