It all comes down to this. England meet Slovenia in their final Euro 2024 Group C clash, a game that could decide not just who tops the group, but who faces what path into the knockout stages. England are already through to the last 16, but the pressure remains high after two somewhat underwhelming displays. Slovenia, meanwhile, are still dreaming of history: a place in the knockout rounds of a major tournament for the very first time.

It’s a match that blends expectation with opportunity, England looking to find their rhythm, Slovenia hoping to spring an upset.

Team News

England

Gareth Southgate is expected to shuffle his midfield after criticism of England’s balance in the opening games. Trent Alexander-Arnold is likely to make way for Conor Gallagher alongside Declan Rice, freeing Jude Bellingham to roam further forward.

Luke Shaw is still working his way back to fitness, so Kieran Trippier will probably continue at left-back, with Kyle Walker on the right. John Stones and Marc Guehi are set to remain as the central pairing, while Harry Kane will again lead the line.

Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka are expected to keep their places in attack, although Southgate might consider introducing fresh legs like Jarrod Bowen or Cole Palmer later in the game.

Slovenia

Manager Matjaž Kek has found a formula that works, and he’s unlikely to make wholesale changes. Jan Oblak remains a reassuring presence in goal, while the back line of Karnicnik, Bijol, Brekalo, and Janža has been impressively organised so far.

In midfield, Timi Elšnik and Adam Gnezda Čerin will look to keep things compact, while teenage striker Benjamin Šeško provides the main attacking outlet. Slovenia’s plan will almost certainly be to frustrate England and look to strike on the counter.

Recent Form

England

It’s been steady rather than spectacular. England opened with a hard-fought 1–0 win over Serbia but then laboured to a 1–1 draw with Denmark. They’ve looked solid defensively but have struggled to move the ball quickly enough through midfield to create clear chances.

Fans are still waiting for the free-flowing football this team produced in qualifying, but there’s no denying England’s quality, Bellingham has been a standout performer, and Kane remains a constant goal threat.

Slovenia

Slovenia have been one of the surprise packages of Group C. They drew 1–1 with both Denmark and Serbia, showing great resilience and organisation. They’re unbeaten and full of belief, knowing that even another draw could be enough to take them through.

Kek’s men are disciplined, defensively compact, and capable of moments of flair on the break. Šeško’s pace and power up front could test England’s back line if the game becomes stretched.

Odds

England remain heavy favourites going into the game, with most bookmakers pricing them around 3/10 to win. Slovenia are roughly 9/1 outsiders, while the draw sits at around 4/1.

A low-scoring game is the most popular betting prediction, the over/under is set at 2.5 goals, with the under slightly favoured. England to win to nil and Harry Kane to score are among the more popular markets.

Despite England’s sluggish start, the odds reflect the gulf in squad depth and tournament experience.

Prediction

This feels like a night where England will want to reassert control and restore confidence heading into the knockouts. Expect Southgate’s side to dominate possession and look for quicker passing through midfield, with Bellingham and Foden tasked to unlock a tight defence.

Slovenia will defend deep, stay compact, and hope to catch England on the break, but if England grab an early goal, it could become a more comfortable evening.

Predicted score: England 2-0 Slovenia
England to top the group with a solid, professional performance, and Slovenia to leave with their heads held high after a respectable showing.