Euro 2024 Predictions
With the Euro 2024 opening game just days away, like every other football fan and football outlet, we’ve gone through a few categories to put our two-pence in on who we think is going to win the tournament. We’ve put together 7 categories for predictions; winners, finalists, top scorer, player of the tournament, biggest overachievers, biggest underachievers and strangest moment of the tournament.
To help with this, I’ve also used a predictor and simulator for the tournament to place each team where I think they will finish in their group, who will claim the 3rd placed spots and the run to the final for each side.
Of course there’s no way to accurately know how this will all play out, but I am fairly happy with my predictions and feel they’re based in some statistical evidence but maybe also a fair bit of gut feeling. Having said that, if you disagree or have some predictions of your own, head over to Twitter/X (@NextGoalWinBlog) and let us know how you see the tournament going.
Winners: Portugal
Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Joao Felix, Diogo Jota, Rafael Leao, Goncalo Ramos, Joao Palhinha, Joao Neves, Ruben Dias, Antonio Silva and of course Cristiano Ronaldo… just some of the talents at the disposal of Portugal heading into the tournament, and yet somehow are still only 5th favourites. The 2016 champions have developed a squad stacked with talent, and given this is the final European Championship for their talisman in Cristiano Ronaldo (or at least I would assume it is), I think they will bring everything together to win the whole tournament.
We have mentioned the individuals, but with Roberto Martinez they come together as a fantastic squad. There have been questions over Martinez as a manger from his time at Belgium, and the Portugal squad has often been skewed to fit Ronaldo, however it seems like this appointment for Martinez has overcome the hurdle of phasing out the Portuguese hero to bring forward new stars and shine a light on the squad over individuals.
Coming into the tournament, they have been dominant in qualification, winning 10 out of 10 and only conceding 2 goals in the entire process. With a goal difference of +34, they were dominant and ruthless in their qualification, with goals coming freely, and a solid defence blending youth and experience in equal measure.
With the majority of the squad already being a household name, I can see the younger stars becoming this in the near future, and a international title would seal a great end to the international careers for Ronaldo and Pepe (although I think we might see a run out for both in the 2026 World Cup), while it would reward them for a strong campaign to reach the tournament.
Because of the route they could take to the final, I think Portugal’s group will be light work and give them a chance to rotate and build confidence with plenty of goals. In a group with the Czech Republic, Georgia and Türkiye they shouldn’t see too much difficulty in qualifying, especially with 3 sides potentially able to progress. If they top the group as I predict, I have a route to the final for them which includes Serbia, Netherlands and Germany before an eventual final against France/England. I think that Germany would be the only side capable of stopping a confident and free flowing Portugal side, and because of their frailties at times, I think they have more than enough to get to the final, where I predict an England side who have perhaps rode their luck to reach the final will be there for the taking.
With everything I mentioned from the star names, great run in qualifying, blend of youth and experience, strong defensive unit, good group and run to the final, I have a strong feeling for Portugal to go all the way and win the title for the second time in the last 3.
Finalists: England
With the draw playing out in the way I predict, I expect that England and Portugal will both top their groups comfortably, resulting in a round of 16 tie with a 3rd placed side for both (England vs Austria / Portugal vs Serbia in my predictor). With a straight run to the quarter-finals, things will likely heat up from here, as I have Portugal beating the Netherlands and England beating Scotland in a feisty encounter. In the semi-finals, I think Portugal will get past Germany and England will also take revenge on their World Cup opponents in France to make the final in back to back European championship tournaments.
As you’ve probably noticed however, by having Portugal as my predicted winners, this leaves England as runner-up once again, as I think the draw to get them to the final will deserve huge credit and allow them to avenge some defeats from previous tournaments in recent years, however I think in that final game against Portugal, they will be able to control the midfield and have a very strong and resolute defence, and I’m not too sure why I have this feeling about Portugal, but I just think their squad is stacked with talent and in a one-off final game they will just edge past England. It may be an extra-time or even penalty shootout result, but I think England will have used up their luck to reach the final against Italy and France and come up short once again, likely resulting in the end of Southgate’s time in charge and trying to rebuild ahead of the World Cup in 2026.
Top Goalscorer: Harry Kane
With a predicted journey to the final, it’s likely that Europe’s top scorer Harry Kane will be in and among the goals in the competition. Although the England line is stacked with goalscorers, it’s Kane who often pops up in the right place the right time, while the potential for penalties gives him an edge in the side. Arguably the best central striker at the competition in top form will surely be expected to score big, and it’s unlikely he will be rested as he will want as much time on the pitch as possible as he will look to grab as many goals in the group stage as possible.
Player Of The Tournament: Bernardo Silva
I had to go with a player from who I predict will be eventual winners, and I’ve gone for one of the more understated superstars in Portugal’s ranks, Bernardo Silva. In a City side where he occasionally gets overlooked for his contributions, I think the same could be said for his international career where Ronaldo has often taken the headlines. Despite this, I think Euro 2024 will be the tournament where his goals, assists and attacking output helps Portugal to success, and as a result we see a player of the tournament campaign for the midfield maestro.
Biggest Overachievers: Scotland
I have a feeling Scotland will produce a summer to remember as they progress through to the quarter-finals of the tournament in what might be my boldest prediction in this entire post. With a fairly tough group containing hosts Germany, Switzerland and Hungary, I have confidence they will head into the tournament feeling confident from their qualification campaign, allowing them to escape the group in second with Germany inevitably in 1st.
From this point, my predictor has them coming up against Italy the reigning champions in the round of 16, however I think Scotland will get past the current holders in a remarkable effort demonstrating some of the belief and quality that got them to the tournament to begin with. Riding the high of their group and round of 16 efforts, I think they will set themselves up for a very exciting prospect in the quarter-finals as they face England. In what will be a feisty encounter, I do think Scotland will bow out with England just showing a bit too much attacking quality to progress past their UK rivals.
While it could be argued a quarter-final place isn’t necessarily ground-breaking for an overachiever, I think Scotland would definitely see this as a huge success. After a fairly disappointing Euro 2020 run, missing out on the World Cup and having a strong qualification for this tournament, they still can’t be seen as a regular on the big international competitions, and so a quarter-final would be huge for them to continue building on.
I believe they will miss Lewis Ferguson who I had been very excited to see on the international stage after a remarkable domestic campaign at Bologna, however I think their experience in other areas will help Scotland to produce a remarkable run that gives them belief for future tournament qualification. There will be no doubt their fans will be travelling in numbers to support the side, and I think they may prove to become a crowd favourite in Germany for the tournament.
Biggest Underachievers: Italy
Having previously mentioned where I predict Italy to bow out of the tournament, as reigning holders they should be looking to progress far into the knockout rounds, however I see this playing out differently. With a limited squad missing big names that have helped them in previous tournaments, I think Italy will struggle to impart themselves on the competition. With a really tough group containing an unpredictable but still impressive Spain side, an aging but always strong Croatia who show up regularly in international competitions, and Albania who could surprise with some quality players among their squad, I think they will struggle to escape the group and may actually end up in a 3rd placed qualification spot.
I still think they will get enough of a result against Croatia and Albania to get out in 2nd, but I think they joy will be short-lived as their tie with Scotland will produce a big upset as Scotland put together a strong performance similar to their qualification successes against tough opposition. I think Italy will take this tournament as a chance to hit reset and look ahead at what talents they have coming through, but it will be one to forget after having such success in Euro 2020 and then missing out entirely on the World Cup in 2022.
Strangest Moment: Protests/Referees
With the state of the world as it currently is, there will no doubt be delays within games due to protests. We’ve seen attempts at protests in the domestic game a lot in recent years, and the chance to make your voice heard on an international stage is often an opportunity for protestors. I think we will see several protests which will cause delays to the start and within games, but perhaps this won’t be viewed as a ‘strange moment’ but more a feature of the tournament.
The big ‘strangest moment’ I am thinking could happen at the tournament, is that we see an incident where a referee gets injured, replaced and then the replacement also gets injured, resulting in a delay while a replacement official can be sourced. Even though there are now more officials than players (or at least it feels like this), with most being on VAR duty, we will have a delay in the game while a solution is sorted for a backup to the backup referee as both pick up injuries meaning they can’t officiate or run the line, creating an embarrassing moment for the refereeing teams as they look for a solution.
How are you predicting this tournament to play out? Do you agree or disagree with any of our choices heading into the summer tournament?
Head over to Twitter/X (@NextGoalWinBlog) to let us know what you make of our predictions, and what you’re anticipating ahead of kick-off next week.