Premier League 2022/2023 – A Game Of Chance

Premier League 2022/2023 – A Game Of Chance

Many people have tried to make predictions with the new season about to get underway, and the competition is looking wide-open. We ourselves have also been joining in, with our AI preview and upcoming predictions/in-depth preview. However, this is football, and one thing we must understand in football and sport in general, is that in anybody can pull off an upset and beat anyone. In 90 minutes, shock results, underdog tales and crumbling giants can all occur. So, although there are clear favourites and higher quality sides, some of the game comes down to chance.

With that thought in mind, I have decided to play through the entire league entirely through chance. To do this, I have run incredibly statistical simulations for all 380 games to work out the entire division. When I say statistical simulations, what I mean is that I rolled a dice for each team to score the games. The dice roll represented the number of goals scored from 1-6. I understand that not every game has both teams scoring, and this method limits teams to just 6 goals, however as you will see, it gives some great results along the way, and across a whole season, we can see which sides have picked up the luck along the way.

Honestly, as ridiculous of a method for predicting a tournament this is and sounds, it would make one hell of a season, with all 20 teams scoring and conceding over 100 goals each. With a few 6-6 draws and high scoring gameweek’s, if we have a season anything like this, it’ll go down in the history books.

So, let us know over on Twitter (@NextGoalWinBlog) what you think of our predictions, and if you have tried this yourself, let us know, we would love to compare. Also don’t forget to keep checking our site for our genuine predictions and previews of the Premier League season, along with previews of the Women’s Euros final, the Championship and the Community Shield all in the coming days/weeks.

Enjoy.


Final Standings

1. Brighton & Hove Albion (21W, 5D, 12L – 147GF, 130GA, 17GD) 68pts.

2. Chelsea FC (20W, 3D, 15L – 130GF, 117GA, 13GD) 63pts.

3. West Ham United (20W, 1D, 17L – 121GF, 120GA, 1GD) 61pts.

4. AFC Bournemouth (19W, 3D, 16L – 123GF, 120GA, 3GD) 60pts.

5. Everton FC (19W, 3D, 16L – 117GF, 120GA, -3GD) 60pts.

6. Manchester United (19W, 1D, 18L – 125GF, 123GA, 2GD) 58pts.

7. Nottingham Forest (19W, 1D, 18L – 114GF, 114GA, 0GD) 58pts.

8. Brentford FC (19W, 1D, 18L – 101GF, 104GA, -3GD) 58pts.

9. Arsenal FC (18W, 3D, 17L – 118GF, 120GA, -2GD) 57pts.

10. Wolverhampton Wanderers (17W, 4D, 17L – 113GF, 111GA, 2GD) 55pts.

11. Southampton FC (17W, 4D, 17L – 108GF, 108GA, 0GD) 55pts.

12. Crystal Palace (17W, 4D, 17L – 117GF, 121GA, -4GD) 55pts.

13. Aston Villa (16W, 7D, 15L – 125GF, 131GA, -6GD) 55pts.

14. Newcastle United (17W, 3D, 18L – 118GF, 109GA, 9GD) 54pts.

15. Tottenham Hotspur (15W, 7D, 16L – 115GF, 113GA, 2GD) 52pts.

16. Manchester City (16W, 3D, 19L – 125GF, 117GA, 8GD) 51pts.

17. Leicester City (14W, 7D, 17L – 122GF, 122GA, 0GD) 49pts.

18. Liverpool FC (13W. 4D, 21L – 123GF, 120GA, 3GD) 43pts.

19. Fulham FC (13W, 1D, 24L – 117GF, 123GA, -6GD) 40pts.

20. Leeds United (10W, 2D, 26L – 113GF, 122GA, -9GD) 32pts.

(W=Wins, D=Draws, L=Losses, GF=Goals For, GA=Goals Against, GD=Goal Difference, PTS=Points)


Review

Looking at the table, it’s a very close season, with only 36 points separating 1st from 20th, and with every team scoring plenty, it would clearly be a thrilling campaign to watch. The biggest shocks obviously are in 1st with Brighton working some miracle to claim top spot and the league title, while the likes of City and Spurs narrowly escape relegation, however Liverpool have fallen into the relegation spots and have had a shocker.

Some of the predictions may well turn out to be true come May next year, such as Fulham and Leeds being relegated, Chelsea making top 4, and the mid-table standard finish for the likes of Southampton, Palace and Wolves.

It’s certainly not one to be putting money on, but it’s an entertaining prediction game to make, so grab a dice and give it a go and let us know how you get on.