Kick-Off… Premier League
The countdown is on. English football is returning. Despite a growing fondness to the Bundesliga, K-League and occasional Belarusian Premier League match, this is what I have been craving for weeks.
Admittedly, I was sceptical at first regarding the safety of football returning during the country’s current situation, however after seeing the work of the Bundesliga and confidence of the clubs and players, I believe this will be a great distraction for the nation and I’m optimistic that the league will be successful in bringing back football in England and all the entertainment that comes with it.
So, with 9 games remaining (92 Total), each club has plenty to play for. Even though it hurts to admit, the trophy has surely travelled to Merseyside and it is truly deserved after their dominant performances. However, even with the title race an inevitability, the Premier League still has much to offer. Here are my top 5 things to get excited for on the 17th of June when the Premier League returns and Aston Villa vs Sheffield United gets underway.
Europe…
Who will finish 4th? Will Spurs manage to claim a Europa League spot? Will City’s European ban be upheld and impact the season?
These are all major questions to be answered in the final 9 rounds of matches in the Premier League. Although it would be a miracle for the title to end up anywhere other than Liverpool, there is still plenty up for grabs at the top-half of the table. As things stand, Leicester and Chelsea are in the Champions League spots, with Manchester United and Wolves currently taking the available Europa League spots. However, the FA Cup could open up another Europa League place for 7th spot currently occupied by newly promoted Sheffield United.
In these final 92 games however, things could change significantly with the top 12 clubs all potentially competing for the European places. Prior to the lockdown, both Leicester and Chelsea had been out of form, while Manchester United had been flying in their last few games. However, form essentially counts for little after an extended break, and so the top 4 could keep changing in the final weeks.
Looking towards the Europa League, it is highly likely that the 7th spot will open up an additional place, and Sheffield United will have Tottenham and Arsenal breathing down their necks. The statistical table predictor that has run simulations of the final games, has the blades finishing in 9th place after being caught by the chasing London clubs. In this prediction Man United, Spurs and Wolves would take the places respectively, however as anyone who has ever watched football would tell you, the game is not won on paper. Sheffield United have already defied the odds to get this far and they won’t give up without a fight, but Mourinho’s Spurs side with a returning Harry Kane and Arsenal’s reluctant desire to stay in the Europa League will keep things very interesting.
My personal opinion:
3. Leicester City (A couple of wins should put them just out of reach from the teams below)
4. Manchester United (Keeping their run of form from before the break should do the job for Solskjaer)
5. Chelsea (Will just miss out this year, but will return formidably next year with their new signings)
6. Wolverhampton Wanderers (They seem like everyone is on board with Nuno’s ideas, and now finishing the season without European football mid-week, or any FA cup concerns will keep them going)
7. Tottenham Hotspur (Victories against Sheff United and Arsenal will leapfrog both as Mourinho pulls off some decent results)
…Or Bust
Down at the bottom half of the table, we have 8 teams at risk of taking those dreaded bottom 3 spots. Not only does the drop impact clubs financially in the short and long term, but additionally in this increasingly competitive football landscape, returning back to the top-flight is no easy task. Entering into the Championship with some massive clubs to compete with means recapturing their Premier League status is a tough challenge, which many star players choose to escape by abandoning the club, thus adding to the difficulty. Looking back over the years, many relegated clubs are unable to ever get themselves back on top, which for fans and the clubs will make these final 9 games feel like 9 cup finals.
Newcastle and Southampton in my opinion are out of reach at this point and should be safe, barring some shock results. Brighton, West Ham and Watford sit just on the edge of the drop zone, which is occupied by Bournemouth, Villa and Norwich. Based on the previous games in the season, I think it’s hard to imagine Norwich escaping from their current position, while Villa have seemed too defensively frail and reliant on one star man to dominate their final games. Therefore, I am predicting that they will go down, and over the summer both clubs will be stripped of star players who will be sold at quite discounted prices.
For the final spot, I genuinely can’t predict what will happen. I think the 18th place will bring the most drama and tension to the final games. Looking at the 4 clubs in danger of taking the spot, a reasonable case could be made for all. Brighton currently are 2 points ahead of their rivals, West Ham just seem too big to go down (making them inevitably the club to get relegated), Watford and Bournemouth have both had difficulties this season and yet I still don’t feel like they are poor enough to drop out of the league. If I had to pick a club, I think Bournemouth will just escape, leaving Watford the unfortunate ones. Both of the clubs though again will be raided and potentially Eddie Howe may move on when an opportunity arises.
My personal opinion:
18. Watford
19. Aston Villa
20. Norwich
You’ve Got No Fans
We have already seen empty stadiums across Europe, with Germany, Portugal and Spain returning to action, and this being a feature of Premier League fixtures will take some adjusting. We are used to experiencing packed stadiums and the atmosphere they bring from both motivational support urging teams to victory, and also from an entertainment aspect to fully immerse ourselves in the drama of a match. Removing this part of football at times takes your attention away from the game, as often I find myself treating the games as though they’re ‘training matches’. Admittedly, I haven’t had a personal connection to any of the matches I’ve watched so far, and so when my team play again it will probably bring back this tension and drama.
On-Field, the lack of fans has appeared to have a impact upon ‘home side advantage’ which for Bundesliga teams has been shown significantly since their return. Prior to empty stadiums, the league had a 43.3% home team win record. However in the 46 games since the restart, only 10 matches ended in a home victory (21.7%). What these numbers appear to suggest, is that clubs had been benefitting from the atmosphere and support of a lively crowd who could spur them on to victory, however without this intimidation for the visiting side, the game begins on an even footing, home sides lose their 12th man and this costs them points. In the Premier League, a few crucial games around the relegation battle or European race could be influenced by this.
To make up for the lack of atmosphere, various ideas have been floated around the league to provide some alternatives. Sky have announced their partnership with EA Sports to provide an overlay of simulated crowd noise for their broadcasts, while some clubs may use the fake atmosphere inside the stadium to boost their teams performance as seen (or heard) in some Bundesliga games. Additionally, some clubs will surely implement some method of making the stadium appear less empty, either through the cardboard cut-outs of fans, scarves being draped over seats or we may even see another K-League ‘doll’ scenario.
Window Shopping
The transfer market situation is truly unknown in the current climate. With transfer fees appearing to be growing at an exponential rate, and surely the first £500million – £1billion player to be on the horizon, this extended break and subsequent loss of revenue for clubs could severely impact upon summer spending across the world. For many clubs, this reduction to asking prices can make bargain deals possible to bring in new faces, while contrastingly any club looking to cash in on young talented players may need to rethink their valuations and expectations. We have already seen how Chelsea are doing major business by bringing in promising talent at fairly reasonable prices, while Mourinho has suggested Tottenham’s spending may be limited and more frugal. Whatever happens on the finance side of transfers, there will undoubtedly be knock-on effects across the league when the transfer market officially opens, and Jim White will be having a field-day.
Meanwhile, for some players nearing the end of their contract, the final few games of the season are their chance to either stake their claim at their current club to push for a contract extension, or they are forced to advertise their talents and prove their worth to any club that will take them on. As seen below, there are some star players in the league that have expiring contracts as this season draws to a close. Given the long lay-off and loss of significant revenue, clubs may snap up some big names with the prospect of no transfer fees.
According to data taken from transfermarkt.co.uk, there is over £100million worth of talent up for grabs over the next few weeks/months and so clubs will be observing closely some of the performances in the final few games. Keep your eyes peeled on the players down below to see who can impress, and who has been putting in the effort to maintain fitness over lockdown and earn their next move.
24/7 Football
Clear your calendars, as your life will now only consist of football. Starting on June 17th with Aston Villa Vs Sheffield United at 6pm, followed by Manchester City Vs Arsenal at 8:15pm, Sky Sports will kickstart the 92 final games, all being aired on UK TV.
This is an unprecedented move from the major players, Sky and BT, as they have worked with the league to ensure maximum availability for the remaining fixtures. Additionally, we will be seeing the first 3pm kick-off matches being aired live and the BBC being awarded 4 live games for the first time ever. Furthermore, 25 Sky exclusive games will be aired on Freeview TV, and Amazon have announced their games will also be available for free. These decisions could become significant in the long-run as we could potentially see future free-to-air league games being distributed, and the 3pm kick-off matches may also become widely available in this country.
To make up for the empty stadium’s, the TV broadcasters have been discussing various ways of increasing the entertainment value of matches. Some of the ideas being implemented include; EA Sports FIFA crowd atmosphere being played over the live matches (can be turned on/off), catch-up highlights and replays, ‘Fanzone’ where friends can enter a zoom-style call and discuss the game as the action takes place and various polls/interactions during the game.
Currently the thought of football every single day sounds incredible as it has been postponed for several weeks. However, I am also apprehensive as to when the novelty will wear off, and the growing sense of oversaturation will set in. Although some would view it as pessimistic, I would agree that you can have too much of a good thing, and so after the 12th straight day, tuning in for Bournemouth Vs Newcastle may waiver my enthusiasm to this condensed schedule, when considering occasional European matches on top of the Premier League.
Overall though, I cannot wait. After weeks of PL Retro, Euro 96 Rewind, FA Cup repeats and pundits looking for any scrap of new information to report, live English football will hopefully bring a sense of normality back to a massive part of daily life for myself and millions of others. Roll on the 17th, roll on Villa Vs Sheff United and roll on Martin Tyler’s “…and it’s live”.
